Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyRecord Unemployment Lows May Not Be a Good Thing There are several analysts suggesting that the already low rate of joblessness will get lower still and could bottom out at around 3%. This is likely a good news, bad news situation. Part of the reason for the low rate is the U.S. has started to run out of workers....

Inflation is becoming increasingly problematic for U.S. producers. Unanticipated gains in June's Producer Price Index (PPI), released July 11, have economists predicting rising costs for manufacturing and construction material in connection to the U.S. administration's tariffs on various imports.According to Reuters, the PPI reached an annual incre...

Even with a tax reform passed by the Trump administration, corporate spending will likely not see an increase, according to a report from the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP). Forty percent of the 640 corporate treasury and finance executives surveyed do not expect their spending to change in the near future.Even though 60% said they w...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWhat Ends the Trade War? At this moment, it would appear that China and the U.S. are preparing to get locked in a death match regardless of what analysts warn. There has been an intense round of accusations and bombastic threats. It would seem that backing down is not in the cards. At some point, both China and t...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyIs the Tax Cut Fizzling Already? According to research from the San Francisco Fed, that is what seems to be happening to the tax cut as far as its impact on economic growth is concerned. This was the fear from the very start of that process. There is nothing unusual about a tax cut and certainly not when the econ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyStates Are Not Ready Now that the economists of the country are starting to coalesce around the idea the next recession will be in 2019 or 2020, there is some conversation as to whether the country is ready. Right now, the answer would have to be a resounding no. The fact is very few of the states have taken step...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyLabor Market AdjustmentsThe jobless rate is still very low—full employment low—but it has risen slightly and for all the right reasons. The best way to illustrate this is to look at both the U-3 and U-6 designations from the BLS. The U-6 numbers include those who have been characterized as "discouraged workers"—t...

Another Canadian province is updating legislation to help the construction industry. Initial amendments to Ontario's Construction Lien Act went into effect July 1, increasing lien time tables to give contractors and subcontractors an extra 15 days to preserve a lien. New rules to prompt payments will go into effect in fall 2019. Saskatchewan is fol...

​Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWhen Rapid Growth is Not All that PositiveIt is always better to have growth than not but motivation also matters. The latest data from the Purchasing Managers' Index is quite positive—a month that saw the PMI hit 60.2. That is the highest level seen since the end of the recession and is further proof of a healt...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyManufacturing Still SurgingThere may come a reckoning at some point and there may be several factors at work right now that are making the manufacturing sector grow faster than would seem logical. The point is that these factors are driving the economy at a rapid clip, while there is no real sign of impending doo...

Short Items of Interest—US EconomyThat Was Fast! For the last few years, there has been a steady drumbeat of expectation as regards the rate of inflation. The Fed stated often that it had a goal of 2% inflation at the core rate (the rate that excludes fuel and food). The signs all started to point to an outbreak as there was so much money getting p...

Trade credit insurance claims across the United Kingdom are at their highest level in nearly 10 years. There were just shy of 4,000 new claims during the first quarter of 2018, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI)."Never has the importance of trade credit insurance been greater—the survival of any business could be at risk without...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyGrowth Not as Robust as Thought The third iteration of the U.S. GDP numbers shows less progress than was originally thought; it seems to have been the fault of the consumer. The last estimate of Q1 growth had been 2.2%, somewhat lower than the first estimate. Now the assertion is that growth in the quarter was on...

The Credit Managers' Index (CMI) from NACM retreated slightly in June, dropping from a 12-month high in May to 56.3 this month. Despite a modest decline in June, credit managers are reporting continued improvement in dollar collections after an unexpected fallout in April.The overall combined CMI remained above a score of 56 for two consecutive mon...

Corporate credit growth during the first quarter of 2018 remained strong despite an uptick in rates. However, it is uncertain if businesses can continue to keep pace with growing interest rates during this economic expansion."Businesses appear to be taking the recent series of rate hikes by the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] and subsequent ri...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyCBO Warning on Interest Rates The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office is not saying anything that was not known prior, but there is a new sense of urgency as far as the message. The higher interest rates promised by the Federal Reserve will be combining with the running of big deficits to cost the ...

How Jerome Powell's Comments and GPDI Should Have Us WatchingWe use three basic recession indicators. One of them, Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) has predicted 11 of the last 13 recessions dating back to the 1940s. The "Spidey Senses" are warming up, but aren't tingling just yet. Keeping corporate and private investment flowing is critica...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Major Reorganization Proposed At this point, the plan, as developed by the Trump team, is more a series of talking points since it is the mid-term season and few in Congress have the desire to tackle something this complex and controversial. It bears closer examination as it would shift a great deal of current e...

NACM's Graduate School of Credit and Financial Management (GSCFM) is underway, with first- and second-year students diving into intensive courses. Instructors Wanda Borges, Esq.; Susan Fee, M.Ed. L.P.C.; Charles Mulford, Ph.D., CPA; and William J. Russell, JD, kicked off the first three days of classes.During the demanding, 10-day-long program, stu...

Short Items of Interest—US Economy Supreme Court Reverses Tax Decision The Supreme Court has overturned a previous decision on whether states can tax internet retailers. The old law said that states would not be able to collect sales taxes on an internet-based company unless that company had a physical presence in that state. Now, the law will allo...