By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Revisions to the Oil Data There is little doubt the oil world has been flipped by the development of oil resources in the U.S. Each month, there is more data that reinforces that observation. The Energy Information Agency has announced the U.S. will set a new record for oil ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade War Winners and Losers The confrontation between the U.S. and China has been altering the global economy for the last two years. As with any reorganization of the status quo there are changes that benefit some and changes that damage others. The pace of global growth h...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Where Was the Good and Bad News in the Employment Numbers? The number of jobs added was more than had been predicted—225,000 as opposed to the expected 160,000. The breakdown of where jobs were gained and lost was of the most interest and significance. The big gains were in ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade Gap Reduced Last Year There is good news and bad news as far as the trade deficit is concerned. For the first time in six years, the gap has narrowed. The problem is this reduction in the size of the deficit was the result of reduced imports, which occurred from the im...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Watch the PMI Data The manufacturing sector worldwide has been drifting deeper and deeper into recession territory. Today, the latest set of purchasing managers' data will be released for many of these countries. There is a universal expectation that the news will be bad, bu...

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Consumer Slowdown The latest data on consumers is not exactly bad, but it isn't all that good either. For the last few years, it has been the consumer driving the economic progress in the U.S. Anything that suggests this run could be coming to an end will worry the manufacturers, t...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Orders Surprise The expectation had been there would be a 0.3% decline after a similar decline the month prior. Instead, there was a nice jump of 2.4% in the demand for goods designed to last three or more years. The one caveat to be aware of is that almost all...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can Fed Develop an Old Tactic for Today? One of the concerns expressed by many within the Federal Reserve is it lacks enough ammunition in the event of another recession threat. The traditional tool was to lower rates to stimulate borrowing, but with rates as low as they are...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—What Worries the Fed? The commentary from some of the regional Fed officials would suggest the Fed has the same concerns as have been expressed in previous years despite the fact there is no imminent risk that would require immediate action. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Women in Ascendance For the first time in a decade, women make up the majority of the workforce. This is not the first time that women have held this position, but the situation is far different from the last time this was the case. In the past, it was due to the fact men we...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Do Tax Incentives Work? There is no subject that generates more controversy within economic development circles than the effectiveness of the tax incentive. The logic seems sound enough at first glance. A city or state wants to attract a major employer to choose them. To lur...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can the Fed React to a Recession Threat? One of the consistent concerns expressed over the historically low interest rates is they have fallen so far that the Fed no longer has the tools it needs to deal with a recession should one appear. The traditional means by which the ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Will Business Investment Bounce Back?— Much of the progress for the economy this past year has been due to the activity within the consumer sector. Consumers have been reacting to the good job numbers and the lack of inflation. The news has not been as good as far as the bus...

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Slide— Most of the news from the consumer has been pretty solid of late. There have been good retail numbers and consumer confidence has remained strong. That hardly means there is nothing for the dismal scientists to worry about. The latest data on durable goods show...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Even the Doves Are Satisfied— It has been no shock that various hawks on the Fed's Open Market Committee have been calling for an end to the lowering of rates—Esther George and Eric Rosengren have dissented against the cuts three times in the last several months. There had bee...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Industrial Activity Recovers— The industrial production numbers include three sectors that do not always move in lockstep. The biggest part of the measurement concerns manufacturing. Of late, this sector has been slowing down. The other two categories include mining (which i...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Too Much Collateral—Too Little Cash— The repo market is largely unfamiliar with the general public, but it is certainly important to the banking system. This is the system banks use to do short-term loans. The banks borrow money overnight to handle the day's obligations and ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—A Giant Has Passed— The news started off with a depressing note. Paul Volcker has passed away at the tender age of 92. It is hard to argue that there has been a more influential Fed chairman in modern times and very few economists with the reach he had. As recently as a year...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—No Shocks Expected in Today's Jobs Data— By the time you read this, the jobs numbers will have been released and you will know whether the economists have any idea about what is going on in the economy. The expectation is there will have been some solid job gains and the ove...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Few Takers for Expanded Offshore Drilling— A year or so ago, there was a statement from the White House that suggested the U.S. was going to go full tilt towards more offshore drilling. There was limited enthusiasm from the energy sector as there has been a decline in demand...