By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Services Domination Shrinks— The U.S. has long run a deficit when it comes to goods. The fact is U.S. consumers want low prices and lots of variety and have long availed themselves of the global output. At the same time, the U.S. has run a surplus with almost every nation wh...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Are Investors in Fantasy Land?— Once again, the markets are setting records. This baffles those who still insist there is a connection between the status of the economy and the markets. There has been a steady drumbeat of down economic data—reduced industrial output, weaker ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Markets Hoping for the Best— Investors appear to be a happy and confident lot these days as they continue to believe everything is going to turn out just fine. There have been ample signals as to the potential for a serious slowdown and maybe even a full-fledged recession, b...

By Chris Kuehl, PH.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—American Mobility Declines— Once upon a time, the U.S. was characterized as one of the most mobile societies in the world. It was a driver of the economy in a variety of ways. It meant people were willing to relocate for jobs and that there was a vibrancy in the economy whic...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Another Round of Stopgap Funding— The government shutdown will be averted once again, but there is still no real budget in place. The decision was made to pass another short-term extension and keep the government functioning through December 20. The Senate will take up the H...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Where Is the Wage Inflation?— One of the laments from the economic community has been the apparent demise of the Philips Curve. This tool has been around since the 1950s. It stated logically enough that when the rate of unemployment fell, there would be wage inflation as the...

Global growth is expected to remain at a slow pace during the next two years. However, Moody's Investors Services predicts the global economy will not see a recession during that time (2020–21). Yet, the economy would be "more vulnerable to negative developments" during this time of lower growth and inflation, states Moody's Global Macro Outlook re...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Going Underwater on Vehicles— The homeowner was once the greatest risk as far as going underwater on a loan. It was not uncommon for people to buy a house at a price that was not maintained. By the time they decided to sell that home, it was worth less than when they bought ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Business Loan Decline— The Fed has announced that business loan demand was down last quarter. The expectation is that the pace will slow even more in the fourth. This is not much of a shock given all the other data that has been accumulating. The business community is scalin...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—More Manufacturing Data on Tap This Week— The last few weeks have repeatedly shown weakness in the global manufacturing sector. That has been weighing on the U.S. economy as well. The latest set of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) numbers have been weaker than they were last...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D.—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Consumers Are Still Spending— The latest data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) shows that consumers are still busy and still propping up the U.S. economy. It has been repeated ad nauseum, but it remains as true as ever—consumption is the key to the success of the globa...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Test for Gig Economy— The future of the "gig economy" may be determined by the battle being waged in California over how to classify those who are engaged in activities such as ride sharing, delivery services and the like. The companies such as Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and many ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Interest Rate Cuts— The Fed is starting to consider what it does next. The consensus view is that another quarter point reduction is likely. The two reductions that have taken place in recent months have been described by the Fed as "insurance" as there was no real pressing ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Chances for Major Deal with China Remain Remote— There has been some excitement in the global markets over the possibility of a "phase one" deal between the U.S. and China, but that optimism has been tempered by the fact that few think the next phases will be developed anyti...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Fed Injects More Liquidity— As promised, the Federal Reserve injected more long-term and short-term liquidity into the markets in an effort to reduce the volatility manifesting of late. The overnight lending markets have been nervous and somewhat unpredictable so the Fed has...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Massive Increase in School Funding— The current plan from Senator Elizabeth Warren would allocate $800 billion to public education—$450 billion to Title One funding for low income students, $200 billion for students with disabilities, another $100 billion for various grants ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Is It Still the Economy?— If the answer to this question is "yes," the polls suggest that Trump will win the 2020 election with a wider margin of victory than in 2016. The current position of the voting public is as polarized as it has been in decades with nearly equal numbe...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Tariff Threat Remains— Nobody seems to be getting too excited over the latest "deal" between the U.S. and China although there is some sense both countries are walking away from the edge of the cliff. The White House has reminded China that these more punitive tariffs will r...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Manufacturing in Recession?— According to two-thirds of the economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, the overall manufacturing sector in the U.S. is now officially in recession as there have been two consecutive quarters of contraction. The decline has yet to plunge gro...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Agriculture—Key to Breaking Trade Deadlock?— There is far more reason for pessimism than optimism about the trade war between the U.S. and China, but if there is a glimmer of hope, it may well come from the agricultural community. The Chinese are back in the market for U.S. ...