Despite the holiday season, December was not welcoming to the retail sector as overall service sector sales plummeted to the lowest mark of the year, according to NACM Economist Chris Kuehl's findings in last month's Credit Managers' Index (CMI). An underlying trend remains unknown, but a recent CNBC report indicates the latest retail pitfalls coul...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyTariffs and ExemptionsFrom the very beginning, there has been a certain amount of confusion accompanying the steel and aluminum tariffs. The fact is U.S. steel and aluminum makers have been facing severe competitive pressures over the years from nations like China and Russia that openly subsidize and support thei...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyConsumer Debt There are many aspects of the recent economic rebound that are positive and have contributed to optimism regarding the coming year, but there are also some potential land mine issues. One of the most threatening is debt. The level of consumer debt is back to where it once was—not a good thing. The c...

U.S. home prices are on the rise according to two separate data releases announced this week. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reports home price increases in all nine census divisions—a year-over-year jump of 5.5% in October. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced prices rose 0.3% in October co...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyStrong Retail Numbers The expectations for this year's retail season were pretty high at the start. There had been a pattern set already with strong back-to-school numbers and then a strong Halloween. The November numbers looked good, but there was some concern retailers were limiting themselves with another year...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyThird Quarter GDP Down a Bit The latest revision of the third quarter data is a little less than anticipated. The estimate was that growth was at 3.5%. Now it seems that consumers were not quite as active as originally thought and the actual number (for now) is 3.4%. There will be more revisions of the Q3 numbers...

NACM's Credit Managers' Index, hoping to build momentum from November, closed out 2018 with a slight flop. The December reading slipped 1.6 points back toward its October reading. "On one level, this is disappointing. It would have been nice to see the index continue tracking upwards, but it is important to remember that any reading over 50 suggest...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMore Backpedaling on the Wall The latest twists and turns over the border wall are somewhat predictable given the number of times this situation has arisen already. Those lines in the sand are blurring again. It looks like it is time for another acrimonious compromise. Trump spokespeople have indicated the $5 bil...

Following October's unanticipated decline in U.S. housing starts, homebuilding saw an upswing in November thanks to substantial gains in multifamily housing construction. Single-family housing starts, however, restrained any further growth, reaching its lowest reading since August 2017.On Dec. 18, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) re...

Although the implementation of enhanced cybersecurity and faster supplier payment solutions come at a hefty cost to small businesses, the Australian government is not shying away from technological advancements after announcing its plans to invest nearly $13 million during its mid-year financial outlook and budget.The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) re...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyReaction From State and Local Level It has taken a while, but the various stimulus efforts that had been undertaken at the start of the year have finally begun to pay off for the states and cities. They have seen some additional revenue coming in as result of the better business atmosphere and more consistent tax...

Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes is at its lowest level in more than three years. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped four points to 56 in December, the lowest reading since May 2015; however, confidence is still in positive territory. One of the contributing factors to the D...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyRethinking Fed Strategy There has not been a new position staked out by the Fed at this point. However, economists are busy reading the tea leaves and consulting their Runes as they look ahead to 2019 and what Fed policy might look like. The expectation earlier this year was that 2019 would look a lot like 2018 w...

Holiday spending this shopping season is exceeding expectations, so much so that Americans are spending well above last year's average. CNBC's All-America Economic Survey, conducted on a quarterly basis, saw a spending surge in the final quarter of 2018 to an average of more than $1,100 compared to last year's average of just over $900.According to...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMassive Farm Bill Set to Pass At varying points over the last couple of years, it seemed the Farm Bill would never make it through Congress despite the fact it is critical to the survival of the agricultural sector in the U.S. This is the legislation that authorizes the myriad of subsidies and assistance programs...

Construction materials prices are on the decline; however, prices are still higher than they were a year ago. Prices fell 1.8% in November according to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), yet materials prices were more than 5% higher than the previous November. "Earlier in 2018, materials prices were racing skyward due to a combination of st...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyPosition Unchanged on China? It has been more than a little challenging to determine just where the talks with China might be. Both nations have adopted a fairly hard-line approach to the negotiations, but that is not unusual given what is at stake. The question is whether any part of this deal is set in stone or...

A trade truce is underway between the U.S. and China, but it is only temporary as the U.S. administration announces a March deadline that will determine the implementation of tariffs. According to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the two countries must reach a deal by Mar. 1; otherwise, the 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods w...

When customers pay by debit card, it can take one to three days before the payment is processed and cleared. With 36% of Americans planning to use debit cards for the holiday season, according to a TD Bank report, businesses must still wait for the payment to be settled by interbank transfer before they see the money.According to The Wall Street Jo...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJob Numbers About as Expected The latest employment data was not much of a shock, which is just fine for this time of year. The level of unemployment has remained where it was at 3.7%, although there were slightly fewer jobs added than had been expected. The assessment prior to this report was that some 200,000 w...