Home construction is feeling the implications of rising mortgage rates, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), after reports saw nearly a 6.5% drop in existing-home sales in December 2018. NAHB analyzed data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) published on Jan. 22, which included single-family homes, townhomes, c...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyHome Sales Data Slows Sales of new homes fell by 6.4% in the last month, the slowest month recorded since 2015. This was not a huge shock to the system as there have been a variety of "headwinds" that evoked a lot of comment these last few months. It has been the usual issue of higher prices and higher mortgage r...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFlagging Consumer ConfidenceFor the last couple of years, the consumer confidence level has been high and, in many respects, higher than would have been expected. The sense has been that consumers pay close attention to only a handful of factors as far as the economy is concerned—jobs, prices and the behavior of ...

Despite the whirlwind of optimism in 2018, CEOs worldwide aren't nearly as hopeful about their respective business climates, according to a recently released survey by PwC and the World Economic Forum (WEF). More than 1,300 CEOs responded to the global survey, 30% of whom anticipate a decline in global growth over the next year.On Jan. 22, PwC Glob...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJobless Claim Still Low In the next few weeks, the jobless numbers are going to be very hard to interpret. This may be about the last week that claims can be assessed as an accurate indication of the state of the U.S. workforce. The government shutdown is dumping hundreds of thousands of federal workers into the ...

December's construction input prices brought some good news to contractors, as Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reports a 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) decline that was most notable in nonresidential construction pricing. Although contractors' concerns aren't completely diminished, ABC Economist Anirban Basu said in the report that the price...

Corporate liquidity is in for a slight squeeze in the future according to the latest Liquidity-Stress Indicator (LSI) from Moody's Investors Service. The LSI was unchanged in December; however, at 3.7%, it is at its highest reading since May 2017. "We expect slower corporate earnings growth and tighter funding conditions this year to continue to li...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySmall Business and the Shutdown Much of the attention has been focused on the estimated 800,000 people who are federal employees and not being paid. This will certainly have an economic impact in those regions where federal employment is a major part of the community, but an even bigger impact will be felt by the...

U.S. contractors in the commercial construction industry are exploring off-site construction as a means to address labor shortages, according to the National Institute of Building Sciences Off-Site Construction Council. Following a 2018 survey, about 54% of respondents said they were utilizing off-site construction, which the council as "the planni...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyVisa Reversal? At this stage nobody quite knows what this means, but on the surface, it sounds promising. The statement by President Trump in a tweet was cryptic and nobody knows if this is part of some well-developed effort or something that just occurred to him. The statement suggests there will be some major c...

China's exports have fallen, which has raised concerns in the global market. During the month of December exports saw the largest drop in two years, indicating China's economic power is weakening in 2019 with a smaller global demand, according to a recent article by Reuters. Along with this sharp decline, China posted its largest trade surplus with...

U.S. President Donald Trump will be skipping the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, amid the partial government shutdown. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other White House officials may join the forum, which will take place from Jan. 22 to Jan. 25, but the president said he will not be in attendance. This foreshadows t...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyShutdown and Unemployment The government shutdown has now lasted longer than any of the previous episodes. With both sides as dug in as they ever were, there is no end in sight. The impact on the 800,000 employees has started to become severe. There have been significant problems for those who once relied on vari...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics wasn't very optimistic when estimating October 2018's construction unemployment rates, which surprised economists with the highest number of open construction jobs in the 18-year history of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). However, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported, such...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySmall Business Loses Confidence Small business confidence can be an illusive quarry. It is so diverse it can be hard to gauge an overall attitude to much of anything. The National Federation for Independent Business (NFIB) does a pretty fair job of polling and assessing the group. Their studies have been showing ...

Euro area sovereigns have a stable outlook for 2019 according to a new report from Moody's Investors Service. Economic growth is expected to remain healthy as government debt burdens ease. "While economic growth in the euro area will slow in 2019, at 1.9%, it will remain robust enough to be credit supportive," said Steffen Dyck, a vice president an...

In a flip-flop over prior years, the U.S. is seeing more jobs than unemployed workers throughout the country, recently exceeding the number of added jobs predicted for December. Labor shortages are noticeable in several industries, so businesses are scrambling to devise tactics to increase potential employee interest.MSNBC reported last week a whop...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyGig Economy Is a Flop At least that is the conclusion for the time being. It was just a few years ago that many thought the "gig economy" would totally transform the workforce and alter the relationship between employer and employee forever. After some 10 years of research, it is safe to say that the gig economy ...

Contractors in the construction industry lost confidence during 2018's third quarter, but moving into the near future, many regained a sense of optimism, according to Associate Builders and Contractors' (ABC) latest Construction Confidence Index (CCI).The index claims about 75% of construction firms expect sales will see an uptick through the end o...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMomentum Shift There is more evidence that 2019 will not be the repeat of 2018 that many had been hoping for. The latest edition of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell sharply to 54.1. This was after a reading of 59.3 in November. A five-point loss is not common and comes as a result of far weaker export nu...